The 1989 Ethiopian coup attempt, orchestrated by Mengistu Haile Mariam's own military officials, represents a pivotal moment in Ethiopian history, with far-reaching implications that could have dramatically altered the geopolitical landscape of the Horn of Africa. Had the coup succeeded, the consequences would have rippled outwards, impacting neighboring countries, regional power dynamics, and international relations in profound ways. Analyzing a counterfactual scenario requires examining various potential outcomes based on the likely actions of key players.

Potential Outcomes of a Successful Coup:

• The Collapse of the Derg Regime: The most immediate consequence would have been the dismantling of the Derg, the military junta that had ruled Ethiopia since 1977. This would have ended the brutal communist regime known for its human rights abuses, famine, and devastating civil war. However, the resulting power vacuum would have been highly unstable.

• Civil War and Fragmentation: The Derg's collapse might have unleashed a prolonged and even more devastating civil war. Various ethnic and political factions, long suppressed under Mengistu's iron fist, would have competed for power. This could have resulted in the fragmentation of Ethiopia into smaller, potentially hostile states, mirroring the situation in Somalia at the time. The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), already a powerful insurgent group, would have likely played a significant role in this power struggle, potentially emerging as a dominant force.

• Shifting Regional Alliances: The Cold War context is crucial. Mengistu's regime was heavily reliant on Soviet and Cuban support. A successful coup could have opened the door for alliances with the West, or perhaps a more neutral stance, significantly altering the regional balance of power. This could have impacted the ongoing conflicts in Somalia and Eritrea, potentially leading to shifts in alliances and military support for various factions.

• Impact on the Eritrean Conflict: Eritrea was engaged in a long and bloody war of independence against Ethiopia. The coup could have resulted in vastly different outcomes. A more weakened or fractured Ethiopia might have been forced to negotiate a swift Eritrean independence, or conversely, a new regime might have doubled down on suppressing the Eritrean struggle, potentially prolonging and intensifying the conflict.

• The Role of External Actors: The involvement of external actors such as the United States, the Soviet Union, or other regional powers would have been critical. A new Ethiopian government might have sought assistance from different international players, leading to increased foreign influence and potentially creating new proxy conflicts in the region. The potential for great power rivalry in the Horn of Africa would have been substantially increased.

• Economic Consequences: The Derg's economic policies were disastrous, leading to widespread famine and poverty. A new regime might have implemented different economic strategies, potentially attracting foreign investment and improving the country's economic situation, or conversely, leading to further economic chaos and instability.

• Human Rights and Humanitarian Crisis: The Derg was responsible for significant human rights violations. A successful coup might have led to either an improvement or a worsening of the human rights situation, depending on the nature of the new regime. A power vacuum could also easily result in an increase in violence and a severe humanitarian crisis.

Conclusion:

Predicting the precise outcome of a successful 1989 coup is inherently speculative. However, a detailed counterfactual analysis reveals the immense potential for a dramatically altered geopolitical landscape in the Horn of Africa. The absence of the Derg would have created a significant power vacuum, leading to potential civil war, fragmentation, shifting regional alliances, and possibly a different trajectory for the Eritrean conflict. The interaction of internal power struggles with the involvement of external actors makes any definite prediction highly challenging, but the potential for profound change is undeniable. The instability created by a successful coup could have had cascading effects, significantly impacting the region's development, stability, and international relations for decades to come. The Horn of Africa's present geopolitical situation would likely be vastly different, potentially even more complex and conflict-ridden than what we observe today.